A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline

Extreme weather events are generally associated with unusual dynamical conditions, yet the signal-to-noise ratio of the dynamical aspects of climate change that are relevant to extremes appears to be small, and the nature of the change can be highly uncertain. On the other hand, the thermodynamic aspects of climate change are already largely apparent from observations, and are far more certain since they are anchored in agreed-upon physical understanding. The storyline method of extreme event attribution, which has been gaining traction in recent years, quantitatively estimates the magnitude of thermodynamic aspects of climate change, given the dynamical conditions. There are different ways of imposing the dynamical conditions. Here we present and evaluate a method where the dynamical conditions are enforced through global spectral nudging towards reanalysis data of the large-scale vorticity and divergence in the free atmosphere, leaving the lower atmosphere free to respond. We simulate the historical extreme weather event twice: first in the world as we know it, with the events occurring on a background of a changing climate, and second in a ‘counterfactual’ world, where the background is held fixed over the past century. We describe the methodology in detail, and present results for the European 2003 heatwave and the Russian 2010 heatwave as a proof of concept. These show that the conditional attribution can be performed with a high signal-to-noise ratio on daily timescales and at local spatial scales. Our methodology is thus potentially highly useful for realistic stress testing of resilience strategies for climate impacts, when coupled to an impact model

Limits on diffuse fluxes of high energy extraterrestrial neutrinos with the AMANDA-B10 detector

Data from the AMANDA-B10 detector taken during the austral winter of 1997 have been searched for a diffuse flux of high energy extraterrestrial muon-neutrinos, as predicted from, e.g., the sum of all active galaxies in the universe. This search yielded no excess events above those expected from the background atmospheric neutrinos, leading to upper limits on the extraterrestrial neutrino flux. For an assumed E^-2 spectrum, a 90% classical confidence level upper limit has been placed at a level E^2 Phi(E) = 8.4 x 10^-7 GeV cm^-2 s^-1 sr^-1 (for a predominant neutrino energy range 6-1000 TeV) which is the most restrictive bound placed by any neutrino detector. When specific predicted spectral forms are considered, it is found that some are excluded.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Search for Point Sources of High Energy Neutrinos with AMANDA

This paper describes the search for astronomical sources of high-energy neutrinos using the AMANDA-B10 detector, an array of 302 photomultiplier tubes, used for the detection of Cherenkov light from upward traveling neutrino-induced muons, buried deep in ice at the South Pole. The absolute pointing accuracy and angular resolution were studied by using coincident events between the AMANDA detector and two independent telescopes on the surface, the GASP air Cherenkov telescope and the SPASE extensive air shower array. Using data collected from April to October of 1997 (130.1 days of livetime), a general survey of the northern hemisphere revealed no statistically significant excess of events from any direction. The sensitivity for a flux of muon neutrinos is based on the effective detection area for through-going muons. Averaged over the Northern sky, the effective detection area exceeds 10,000 m^2 for E_{mu} ~ 10 TeV. Neutrinos generated in the atmosphere by cosmic ray interactions were used to verify the predicted performance of the detector. For a source with a differential energy spectrum proportional to E_{nu}^{-2} and declination larger than +40 degrees, we obtain E^2(dN_{nu}/dE) <= 10^{-6}GeVcm^{-2}s^{-1} for an energy threshold of 10 GeV.Comment: 46 pages, 22 figures, 4 tables, submitted to Ap.

IceCube - the next generation neutrino telescope at the South Pole

IceCube is a large neutrino telescope of the next generation to be constructed in the Antarctic Ice Sheet near the South Pole. We present the conceptual design and the sensitivity of the IceCube detector to predicted fluxes of neutrinos, both atmospheric and extra-terrestrial. A complete simulation of the detector design has been used to study the detector's capability to search for neutrinos from sources such as active galaxies, and gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 8 pages, to be published with the proceedings of the XXth International Conference on Neutrino Physics and Astrophysics, Munich 200

Muon Track Reconstruction and Data Selection Techniques in AMANDA

The Antarctic Muon And Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA) is a high-energy neutrino telescope operating at the geographic South Pole. It is a lattice of photo-multiplier tubes buried deep in the polar ice between 1500m and 2000m. The primary goal of this detector is to discover astrophysical sources of high energy neutrinos. A high-energy muon neutrino coming through the earth from the Northern Hemisphere can be identified by the secondary muon moving upward through the detector. The muon tracks are reconstructed with a maximum likelihood method. It models the arrival times and amplitudes of Cherenkov photons registered by the photo-multipliers. This paper describes the different methods of reconstruction, which have been successfully implemented within AMANDA. Strategies for optimizing the reconstruction performance and rejecting background are presented. For a typical analysis procedure the direction of tracks are reconstructed with about 2 degree accuracy.Comment: 40 pages, 16 Postscript figures, uses elsart.st

Sensitivity of the IceCube Detector to Astrophysical Sources of High Energy Muon Neutrinos

We present the results of a Monte-Carlo study of the sensitivity of the planned IceCube detector to predicted fluxes of muon neutrinos at TeV to PeV energies. A complete simulation of the detector and data analysis is used to study the detector's capability to search for muon neutrinos from sources such as active galaxies and gamma-ray bursts. We study the effective area and the angular resolution of the detector as a function of muon energy and angle of incidence. We present detailed calculations of the sensitivity of the detector to both diffuse and pointlike neutrino emissions, including an assessment of the sensitivity to neutrinos detected in coincidence with gamma-ray burst observations. After three years of datataking, IceCube will have been able to detect a point source flux of E^2*dN/dE = 7*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV at a 5-sigma significance, or, in the absence of a signal, place a 90% c.l. limit at a level E^2*dN/dE = 2*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV. A diffuse E-2 flux would be detectable at a minimum strength of E^2*dN/dE = 1*10^-8 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1GeV. A gamma-ray burst model following the formulation of Waxman and Bahcall would result in a 5-sigma effect after the observation of 200 bursts in coincidence with satellite observations of the gamma-rays.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, 6 table

Limits to the muon flux from WIMP annihilation in the center of the Earth with the AMANDA detector

A search for nearly vertical up-going muon-neutrinos from neutralino annihilations in the center of the Earth has been performed with the AMANDA-B10 neutrino detector. The data sample collected in 130.1 days of live-time in 1997, ~10^9 events, has been analyzed for this search. No excess over the expected atmospheric neutrino background is oberved. An upper limit at 90% confidence level on the annihilation rate of neutralinos in the center of the Earth is obtained as a function of the neutralino mass in the range 100 GeV-5000 GeV, as well as the corresponding muon flux limit.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures. Version accepted for publication in Physical Review

Results from the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA)

We show new results from both the older and newer incarnations of AMANDA (AMANDA-B10 and AMANDA-II, respectively). These results demonstrate that AMANDA is a functioning, multipurpose detector with significant physics and astrophysics reach. They include a new higher-statistics measurement of the atmospheric muon neutrino flux and preliminary results from searches for a variety of sources of ultrahigh energy neutrinos: generic point sources, gamma-ray bursters and diffuse sources producing muons in the detector, and diffuse sources producing electromagnetic or hadronic showers in or near the detector.Comment: Invited talk at the XXth International Conference on Neutrino Physics and Astrophysics (Neutrino 2002), Munich, Germany, May 25-30, 200

On the selection of AGN neutrino source candidates for a source stacking analysis with neutrino telescopes

The sensitivity of a search for sources of TeV neutrinos can be improved by grouping potential sources together into generic classes in a procedure that is known as source stacking. In this paper, we define catalogs of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and use them to perform a source stacking analysis. The grouping of AGN into classes is done in two steps: first, AGN classes are defined, then, sources to be stacked are selected assuming that a potential neutrino flux is linearly correlated with the photon luminosity in a certain energy band (radio, IR, optical, keV, GeV, TeV). Lacking any secure detailed knowledge on neutrino production in AGN, this correlation is motivated by hadronic AGN models, as briefly reviewed in this paper. The source stacking search for neutrinos from generic AGN classes is illustrated using the data collected by the AMANDA-II high energy neutrino detector during the year 2000. No significant excess for any of the suggested groups was found.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, accepted by Astroparticle Physic